China and commodity boom - some cooling off ahead

The picture of people rushing to buy an apartment, as if they were buying a lottery ticket, seemed quite disturbing. It certainly has also the signs of a real estate bubble and it is fair to ssume that it will burst in the near future - say a maximum of a year or two. But perhaps even earlier.
I wonder what this will do to commodity prices like steel, coal, which are at alltime highs. Some rapid cooling off of prices should be in the offing and these stocks should follow suit.
Throughout history, China has been a little understood country. Alexander the Great, who ventured into India, said "Don't awaken the sleeping tiger" but didnt go there. Pehaps, our understanding of China is no better now.

From driver's tips to site response time

Getting a stock tip from a chauffer or a shoe sign boy is a sure sign of market overvaluation, goes the market analogy. But can there be an offbeat measure, which suits the internet age. May be, one should look at site response times of extremely popular financial sites. I have noticed that the Bombay Stock Exchange site has got a lot slower lately. It doesnt open, at times, during the day.
i wonder what this fortells

A frenzied rush for real estate in China

"Crowds of eager buyer wait outside the sales center at Gold Bund Garden, a downtown apartment project that's still under construction. Some waited for more than 12 hours to register for a chance to buy a flat."
March 3, 2005, Shanghai Daily



The last time i saw a picture like this was investor queuing up to buy Morgan Stanley Growth Fund units in the early 90's. China and its cowboy like capitalism seems to be an effecient provider of asset bubbles. I wonder if India will follow China in a stratospheric rise in asset price. I guess there can be good supply, and tweaking with "floor space index" norms, which specifies how much construction can take place in a land space, and this will cool things here.
But i would love to see some real estate investment trust mop up money from the public and i think it would be a good idea to park some funds there.

From quoteron to quote tickers

Peter Lynch, an investment guru, ran Fidelity's magellan Fund for 13 years (1977-90), providing a return of 2700%. One of the things that struck me while reading his book, Beating the street, a few years ago, was his reference to the constant stock prices bombarding investors through television and tickers. When Lynch, was managing the Magellan fund, and in a world yet to experience information overload, he had to use a Quoteron, a machine with a blank screen, where you had to punch in the symbol to get the stock price.
Today, it is impossible to watch any business channel with seeing the stock price movement and in disdain i switched off the television on budget day, as commentators try and make sense for every gyration - when perhaps no explanation is the best explanation.
May be, we are getting caught in an information warp and forgetting the age old maxim,
a watched stock seldom appreciates.

Indians & a facination for intellectual exercises

Can someone change the fortunes of a billion Indians with a stroke of a pen? Can the FM think of some great innovation that can catapult millions out of the spiral of poverty? That is the kind of expectation that is built into an Indian budget.

What misses the radar of most economists and many others is that productivity is the key and in many ways it is more a managerial issue than an economic one.

At best, economists can try and create an external environment that’s fosters productivity.

I guess, the fact that this budget has become less exciting is a pointer of a move towards this direction.

Although, it may sound blasphemous, I haven’t yet read the Finance Bill, despite the blog’s name and in future- many more won’t!