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Wednesday, August 31, 2005

sensex at 5000 in a year!!

steve forbes has predicted here oil will plunges to $35 a barrel in a year. a SEBI member says here sensex will hit 16,000 in the same time frame. perhaps, it is time for me to stick my neck out.

i believe that the sensex will fall to 5000 within a year. markets are very overheated and commodity profits form a large parts of the earnings, which is not sustainable. the period of rapid global growth couldl be impacted by some events, as past probability suggests.

see this space a year later!

4 Comments:

Blogger Ramnath said...

and oil prices will go beyond $80 a barrel, if not $100?

3:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

the growth in china and india have been factored in by the market. negatives have not. so, i feel a lower price is likely.
tvm

8:53 PM  
Blogger Ramnath said...

But in case of oil, dont u think it has to do with supply? They say it has peaked (some keep saying that all the time... but still)

5:55 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

the point is the price discovery in the oil market is not driven by demand and supply. the demand is generated from percieved higher prices by those who never use oil except in their cars. i certainly dont know the demand supply dynamics of the industry but i strongly believe it is not the factor driving up the prices.
and also my mom got a call from hdfc bank for a personal loan!!! - nothing to do with fundamentals
tvm

7:04 PM  

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