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Thursday, November 03, 2005

A typical bull market - throwing caution to the winds

i have been doing some reading about the bird flu and the probability of the H5N1 virus mutating. pretty scary stuff. the threat does seem real from what little i know about the subject.
i wonder what hedges one can put in place against a doomsday scenario which hopefully will never play out. i wonder if gold is a good hedge now. if there is a collapse of the modern financial system who will have the money or the commoditity needed to buy gold and why would they want to buy it.
agriculture is a great hedge but i wonder how many can practice it. in germany, after world war II the farmers where the richest people around and used to try and bribe other people with milk!

anyways, coming back to the bird flu and the market and in my view the meaningless bull market.

look the stock prices of venkateshwara hatcheries (venkys) and SKM Egg feeds, the leaders in the poultry business in india. venky's lost 0.6% during wednesdays trading to close at Rs 140 double its 52-week low. SKM egg feeds closed up a 1% at rs 20.50, well above its 52-week lows of rs 13.

i wonder if it is irrational to expect these stocks to hit new lows everyday given the current environment.

on bird flu:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/facts.htm

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